May 2026 Recap: +273 Units, 23.3% ROI
4,685 graded bets — the biggest volume month of the year. CS2 keeps printing, COD triples its volume, DOTA has its first red month, and Rebet + Chalkboard go live.
+273 units. 4,685 bets. 23.3% ROI.
That's May 2026. Five months in, five green months. Running total on the year: +1,336 units. A $10 flat bettor following every play added $2,730 in May.
Biggest volume month of the year, too — 4,600+ graded bets at a 59.6% win rate, with 22 green days out of 31. Part of that is the schedule, and part of it is two new books (more below) feeding the model all month. It wasn't a smooth ride, though. Zoom out and it's a clean +23.3% month; zoom in and you'll find the week that made people in Discord sweat.
The shape of the month
- May 1–9: nine straight green days to open the month. Best single run since the April heater.
- May 10–15: the chop. Four red days in six, the worst of it an 80–88 day on the 12th. If you started your trial that week, I get it. This is also exactly why bankroll management is rule one.
- May 16: the bounce-back — 195–114 on a huge slate.
- May 21–25: five straight green days, including the best day of the month on May 23: 116–41, a 74.0% win rate day worth +78 units.
- May 30–31: a red final weekend took a bite out of the headline number. It happens.
Anyone can post a winning month. The losing days stay in these recaps for the same reason every bet is publicly tracked — you should be able to check my math, not take my word for it.
CS2: the workhorse, again
1,431–934, 60.5% win rate, +29.1% ROI, +172 units. Over 2,300 graded bets and more than half of May's profit. The February CS rebuild has now printed for three and a half months: 19% ROI in February, 21% in March, 34% in April, 29% in May. Four months is past the point where I'm allowed to call it a hot streak.
LOL: light schedule, heavy ROI
280–162, 63.4% win rate, +54.6% ROI, +60 units. The between-splits lull kept volume well under April's, but the new LOL model from April 15 posted the best ROI of any sport for the second straight month. The rebuild is holding its win-rate gain. When the summer splits ramp the volume back up, this is the model I'm most excited about.
VAL bounced back
350–225, 60.9% win rate, +37.3% ROI, +53 units. In April I wrote that VAL cooling to 59.6% was “the memo arriving” as books sharpened up. May says the floor is higher than the memo suggested: back over 60%, on more volume than April.
COD: triple the volume, modest hit rate
387–281, 57.9% win rate, +12.2% ROI, +20 units. Last month I told you not to read anything into COD's quiet April because the sample was under 200 bets. May more than tripled the volume on a packed CDL schedule, and the April pattern held: nearly all the edge is on unders (343–243 on UNDER, slightly red on OVER). The hit rate was the lowest of the green sports, but green is green, and the bigger sample tells me more than the headline number does.
DOTA: the first red sport-month of 2026
343–293, 53.9% win rate, -13.1% ROI, -21 units. No spin: DOTA had a bad month, the first negative sport-month of the year. Last month I called the March dip variance and April backed me up; May un-backed me up. 636 bets at 54% stings, but the model's lifetime DOTA edge is intact, and portfolio math is exactly why a -21 unit sport inside a +273 unit month is an annoyance, not a crisis. I'm watching it. If there's a structural issue rather than variance, you'll read about it here.
The straight books
Stake did Stake things: 1,710–1,294, 56.9% win rate, +134 units, +4.4% ROI on monster volume. Second full month, second green month, and still the book where the model's volume ceiling is highest.
Bovada cooled from its April debut: 45–29, 60.8% win rate, +5 units. Tiny sample, still green. Same advice as always on the straight books: the unfiltered feed is the floor — filter to the higher-EV plays and the picture improves.
What shipped in May
- Two new sportsbooks went live May 26: Rebet and Chalkboard are now fully public with Discord alerts, bringing the lineup to 13 books. Both had been running internally all month — their bets are in the totals above.
- COD on Betr: Betr's COD markets are now scraped and modeled.
- Slip tracker backend: placed slips now save to your account instead of your browser, so your history follows you across devices. The migration runs automatically — you don't have to do anything.
A few hundred late-May bets are still grading, so the final numbers may tick up slightly from here. Every figure above is from the public tracker — log in and check my math at lcslarry.com/results.
If you want to try the model, there's a free 3-day trial. Five esports, thirteen sportsbooks, scanning prop markets 24/7. See you in the June recap.